India will surpass China to become the largest exporter of cotton products to the US by 2025.
According to the USDA's latest global market analysis, India will surpass China by 2025 to become the largest supplier of cotton products, such as clothing and home textiles, to the US.
Factors such as higher tariffs and the decreasing dependence of US companies on China have helped other suppliers, including India, increase their market share in the US.
In calendar year 2025, US cotton product imports remained flat at 3.3 million tons, equal to the 15-year average.
Imports from China declined to approximately 0.5 million tons in 2025, compared to approximately 0.6 million tons from India during the year.
The US announced several rounds of tariffs on China, ranging from 10-125 percent. While other countries also imposed tariffs of varying levels throughout the year, they were less than half the highest rates imposed on China.
The USDA stated that these conditions have helped India and other suppliers such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Mexico, and Cambodia increase their market share in the US.
Furthermore, the USDA stated that India benefits from a vertically integrated textile supply chain, which increases firms' ability to comply with traceability standards.
Conversely, firms are reducing their dependence on China due to concerns about the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) and rising geopolitical risks, including tariff uncertainty. US cotton product imports from China have declined by 60 percent since peaking in 2010.
The US is the largest importer of cotton products. The USDA stated that while imports were flat, retail sales at clothing stores in the US are expected to increase by 5 percent to a new record. Despite strong consumer demand, flat imports suggest retailers reduced inventories to mitigate costs associated with the fluid tariff environment.
The USDA stated that imports of US cotton products are expected to increase through 2026 due to low retailer inventories and stable consumer demand. Changing trade policies will continue to impact the countries from which these products come.
Furthermore, the USDA stated that global production for 2025-26 is projected to increase by 1.1 million bales (480 pounds) to 121 million bales due to higher harvests in Brazil and China.
There is demand in China. Higher exports from Australia increased global trade by 0.2 million bales to 43.9 million.
Higher imports from India offset lower imports from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks increased by about 1.3 million bales to 76.4 million bales, as higher ending stocks in India and Brazil offset lower ending stocks in
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