India's cotton exports are expected to decline sharply for 2022-23. The USDA projects a decline in Indian exports from 500,000 bales to 1.8 million in 2022-23, roughly equal to its import forecast. "Low domestic supplies, increased demand for overseas long and extra-long staple grades and the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) have supported this recent momentum," the USDA said.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) said in March that Indian stocks could fall to a nearly two-decade low in 2022-23 as adverse weather reduced crop yields. "Supply will fall further in the coming months. Exports will not pick up till the new season harvest starts from October." The USDA said that although India was projected to be the third largest exporter globally, at around 1.8 million bales in 2022-23, it was still far below the 6.2 million bales during 2021-22.
The CAI had said that lower Indian production could allow rivals such as the US, Brazil and Australia to increase cargoes to major Asian buyers such as China and Pakistan, while pushing up local and global prices. "Supply will fall further in the coming months. Exports will not pick up till the new season harvest starts from October." The CAI had said that lower Indian production could allow rivals such as the US, Brazil and Australia to increase cargoes to major Asian buyers such as China and Pakistan, while pushing up local and global prices.
The USDA said that although India was projected to be the third largest exporter globally, at around 1.8 million bales in 2022-23, it was still far below the 6.2 million bales during 2021-22. “If India increases imports and we see higher demand, ICE cotton prices could go up. But demand has been slow due to economic conditions.” Global benchmark US cotton futures posted a third consecutive monthly decline and are down more than 1% so far this year on demand concerns.
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