Brazil's Cotton Crop Second Largest in History; Record Exports Boost Global Market Presence
Brazil is steadily strengthening its position in the global cotton trade. According to Rabobank's June 2026 Agro-Info report, the country's cotton production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach approximately 4 million tonnes of lint, marking the second-largest harvest in its history. Improved yields and robust export performance have enhanced Brazil's competitiveness among the world's leading cotton exporters.
The report notes that while the area under cotton cultivation declined by about 2% this season, favorable weather conditions throughout the crop cycle resulted in superior yields. Consequently, the reduction in acreage did not adversely affect output, and total production remained strong.
Between August 2025 and May 2026, Brazil exported approximately 3 million tonnes of lint, a 17% increase compared to the same period the previous year. Rapid exports during the second quarter further solidified Brazil's share of the global market.
Despite the positive outlook for production and exports, the global cotton market continues to face challenges. USDA estimates cited by Rabobank suggest that global cotton production could decline by approximately 5% in 2026/27, while consumption is projected to rise by only 1.5%. This is expected to reduce global inventories, though the likelihood of a sharp spike in prices remains limited.
The bank notes that inflation, weak consumer demand, rising logistics costs, and geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran are exerting pressure on the global fiber market. Additionally, potential weather-related risks associated with El Niño could impact supply and prices in the upcoming season.
Domestic cotton sales also remain robust. According to IMEA, 72% of the projected production in Mato Grosso has already been sold, a figure that exceeds the five-year average. Rabobank believes that Brazil will continue to be a key player in the global cotton trade in the future, driven by improved productivity, strong exports, and competitive prices.
