CAI’s First Estimate Released! Cotton Production Expected to Decline by 45.69 Lakh Bales in the New Season
A decline of 45.69 lakh bales is projected compared to the previous season, with the sharpest drop expected in Maharashtra.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) released its first production estimate for the 2026-27 cotton season on November 2, 2026. According to the CAI, India’s cotton production for this season is estimated at 280 lakh bales (170 kg per bale), down from 325.69 lakh bales in the previous season—a year-on-year decline of 45.69 lakh bales. The CAI has indicated a potential margin of ±3% in its estimate.
State-wise Production Estimates
Production in the Central Zone is estimated at 176 lakh bales, comprising 91 lakh bales from Maharashtra, 66 lakh from Gujarat, and 19 lakh from Madhya Pradesh.
Production in the Southern Zone is estimated at 71 lakh bales, including 34 lakh from Telangana, 20 lakh from Karnataka, 12 lakh from Andhra Pradesh, and 5 lakh from Tamil Nadu.
Production in the Northern Zone is estimated at 28 lakh bales, consisting of 11.25 lakh bales from Upper Rajasthan, 8 lakh from Haryana, 7.50 lakh from Lower Rajasthan, and 1.25 lakh from Punjab. Additionally, production in Odisha is estimated at 3 lakh bales, with another 2 lakh bales expected from other states.
Year-on-Year Changes in Major States
Compared to the previous season, production is projected to decline by 22.35 lakh bales in Maharashtra, 8.10 lakh in Telangana, 7.80 lakh in Andhra Pradesh, 6.94 lakh in Karnataka, and 2.50 lakh in Gujarat. Meanwhile, an increase of 1.50 lakh bales each is projected for Haryana and Madhya Pradesh.*
Indian Cotton Balance Sheet
According to the CAI, the opening stock at the beginning of the season is estimated at 72.88 lakh bales. With an estimated production of 280 lakh bales and imports of 65 lakh bales, the total availability of cotton is projected to be 417.88 lakh bales.
Total domestic consumption is estimated at 365 lakh bales, comprising 248 lakh bales for the non-MSME sector, 101 lakh bales for the MSME sector, and 16 lakh bales for the non-textile sector. Additionally, exports are projected at 12 lakh bales. Thus, the combined total for domestic consumption and exports is expected to be 377 lakh bales.
Based on these projections, the closing stock at the end of the season—as of September 30, 2027—is estimated at 40.88 lakh bales.
Changes in the Balance Sheet Compared to the Previous Season
Total availability for this season is projected to be 35 lakh bales lower than in 2025-26. Cotton pressing is expected to decline from 325.69 lakh to 280 lakh bales, and imports are projected to decrease from 71.60 lakh to 65 lakh bales. Domestic consumption remains unchanged at 365 lakh bales, while the export estimate has been revised downward from 15 lakh to 12 lakh bales. The closing stock is also projected to decrease from 72.88 lakh to 40.88 lakh bales.
*Note: All production and balance sheet estimates by the CAI are subject to a margin of ±3%.
Source: Cotton Association of India (CAI), First Estimate Report 2026-27, November 2, 2026.
read more:- Rupee Opens 24 Paise Higher at 94.66 Against US Dollar
