Early Monsoon Sparks Relief Hopes Amid El Niño Concerns
By jayesh chouhan 2026-05-20 15:28:48
Early Monsoon Brings Relief Hopes, but El Nino Threat Looms Over India’s Rainfall
India’s southwest monsoon is likely to reach Kerala on May 26, nearly six days ahead of its usual June 1 onset, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). While an early monsoon often raises hopes of relief from intense summer heat and promises a favourable agricultural season, experts caution that the overall rainfall outlook remains uncertain due to the possible development of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nino, marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, is typically associated with hotter summers and weaker monsoon rainfall in India. Since nearly half of the country’s farmland relies on rain rather than irrigation, any weakness in the monsoon can significantly affect agriculture and water availability.
The IMD said the monsoon onset over Kerala could vary by four days on either side of May 26. The weather office also noted favourable conditions for the monsoon’s advance over the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, with widespread rainfall expected along the southern west coast through May 28.
However, meteorologists stress that an early onset does not necessarily translate into above-normal rainfall during the season. Weather experts explain that monsoon performance depends on several factors, including ocean temperatures, wind circulation, and the formation of low-pressure systems. The monsoon typically progresses in phases or “surges,” meaning rainfall distribution across June, July, and August can still remain uneven despite an early start.
