Higher rainfall likely in East and Central India during the final phase of the monsoon; El Niño projected to persist until 2027
New Delhi: Rainfall activity is expected to intensify in East and Central India during the final phase of the monsoon's withdrawal. According to a report by Dolat Capital, as the monsoon withdraws from Northwest India, the final weeks could bring increased rainfall to the eastern and central regions. The report also forecasts a strengthening of El Niño and predicts it will persist until 2027.
According to the report, the most significant improvement in rainfall conditions has been observed in East and Northeast India, where the rainfall deficit narrowed from 29% last week to 27%. The Southern Peninsula also saw improvement, with the deficit dropping from 28% to 26%. The rainfall deficit in Central India remained stable at around 6%, while in Northwest India, it rose from 9% to 10%. At the all-India level, the rainfall deficit held steady at 15%.
Meanwhile, a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal is moving towards the east coast. It is likely to intensify further before making landfall, potentially sustaining rainfall activity across East and Central India.
In the agricultural sector, total sowing of Kharif crops reached 1,103.9 lakh hectares by September 18. The total deficit compared to the same period last year narrowed to 15.1 lakh hectares, down from the 16 lakh hectare deficit recorded the previous week.
For the first time this season, the acreage under oilseeds exceeded last year's figures, while pulse sowing remained largely stable. Rice sowing continues to lag; the area covered stood at 429.3 lakh hectares, compared to 445.9 lakh hectares last year, narrowing the deficit from 17.0 lakh hectares to 16.6 lakh hectares. The cotton acreage stood at 109.6 lakh hectares, compared to 110.6 lakh hectares the previous year, marking a reduction of 1 lakh hectares in sowing.
There were no significant changes in the acreage for sugarcane, jute, and mesta. Water levels in reservoirs across central and western India remained above the 10-year average, whereas the southern peninsula lagged in both sowing progress and reservoir levels.
According to Dolat Capital, El Niño has intensified significantly and could emerge as one of the strongest events on record; the report projects it to persist until 2027.
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