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U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 12/08/2021 Cotton:  Net sales of 242,400 RB for 2021/2022 primarily for China (161,900 RB, including 3,400 RB switched from Singapore, 600 RB switched from Hong Kong, and decreases of 11,100 RB), Turkey (46,100 RB, including decreases of 2,800 RB), Pakistan (16,400 RB, including decreases of 700 RB), Vietnam (12,400 RB, including 4,000 RB switched from China, 1,000 RB from Japan, and decreases of 1,400 RB), and Peru (4,900 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Singapore (3,400 RB) and Japan (1,400 RB).  Total net sales of 59,500 RB for 2022/2023, were for Pakistan.  Exports of 221,100 RB were primarily to Pakistan (49,600 RB), Vietnam (38,000 RB), Turkey (31,700 RB), China (22,100 RB), and Bangladesh (17,600 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 10,600 RB primarily for China (3,800 RB, including 300 RB switched from Germany), India (2,600 RB, including decreases of 600 RB), Pakistan (2,200 RB), the United Arab Emirates (900 RB), and Turkey (500 RB), were offset by reductions for Germany (300 RB).  Exports of 3,700 RB were to India (1,400 RB), China (1,100 RB), Peru (800 RB), and Pakistan (400 RB).  Exports for Own Account:  For 2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 100 RB were to Vietnam.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 4,800 RB is for China (4,700 RB) and Vietnam (100 RB). 

Palm oil slides nearly 3%Malaysian palm oil futures slumped nearly 3% on Wednesday, hitting a one-week closing low on fears of lower export demand and anticipation of an increase in production.The benchmark palm oil contract for November delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed lower 105 ringgit, or 2.38%, to 4,303 ringgit ($1,015.82) a tonne, after rallying to a record high last week.The correction in prices was likely induced by expectations that demand will fall by about 15% over Aug. 1-20, said Marcello Cultrera, institutional sales manager and broker at Phillip Futures in Kuala Lumpur.“Also, the Indian demand for August is fully covered, while subscriptions for September-October have reached a standstill at current prices,” Cultrera added.Export shipments during the first half of August plunged between 15% and 24% from the previous month, cargo surveyors data showed on Monday.Indonesia, the world’s largest palm exporter, experienced greater demand than Malaysia over July and August, partly due to lower export taxes and higher discounts for its crude and refined palm oil.The situation will change in September as Indonesia is expected to raise its export duties for September to $166 from $93 in August, Cultrera said.  

Cotton yarn and product exports drive record cotton consumption in VietnamRobust growth in Vietnam’s cotton yarn and product exports is projected to drive 2020-2021 cotton consumption to a record 7.3 million bales, 700,000 higher than the previous year’s downfall from COVID-19, according to the weekly report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).Yarn exports during 2020-2021 have exceeded the previous year’s record by more than 10 per cent through the first 11 months of the marketing year. Foreign demand has been primarily driven by China, with Vietnam’s cotton yarn exports to the country accounting for roughly 60 per cent of Vietnam’s total cotton lint consumption.China is the world’s largest cotton yarn importer and Vietnam’s largest customer with the geographic proximity and foreign investment by Chinese companies driving record exports. China’s August to June imports of Vietnamese cotton yarn were a record (for the period) and equal to roughly four million bales of cotton lint consumption.China’s robust demand is expected to persist with projected growth in China’s cotton fabric and product exports, in addition to greater domestic consumption of cotton products. The United States WRO (Withhold Release Order) on cotton lint from China’s Xinjiang region is further supporting current and future demand for Vietnam’s cotton yarn.Practically all cotton yarn spun in Vietnam is produced with cotton lint imported from outside of China. Garment and textile manufacturers in China seeking to circumvent the WRO are likely substituting imported cotton yarn for domestic with roughly two-thirds containing Xinjiang lint.Greater domestic consumption in Vietnam of cotton yarn is also driving cotton consumption higher. Significant foreign and domestic investment in Vietnam’s garment industry has driven greater demand for cotton knitted fabrics and thus domestic consumption of cotton yarn by knitters. According to Vietnam customs data, garment and textile exports in 2020-2021 are expected to recover from the previous year’s decline and rise to more than $30 billion; the garment industry is one of the country’s largest valued source for exports.Vietnam’s largest export market for cotton textiles and garments is the United States, which is also the world’s largest importer. US imports from Vietnam were a record in the first 11 months at more than $5 billion. Knitted cotton sweaters, pullovers, and other similar articles of clothing were the largest product category, accounting for roughly 30 per cent of the total value of US cotton product imports from Vietnam.This particular category has historically been dominated by China, however, two factors have driven Vietnam’s market share of US imports higher – the 2020 and 2021 WROs and ongoing tariffs specific to China. Both have lowered US imports of knitted cotton sweaters, pullovers, among others from China nearly 20 per cent thus far in 2020-2021 (August-June) despite US imports of this product category rising over 10 per cent on-year during the same period.Robust export prospects for both cotton yarn and products are expected to boost 2021-2022 cotton consumption even higher to 7.6 million bales, and further support Vietnam’s rise as a major global cotton importer as well as exporter and consumer of cotton yarn and products.

As cotton prices rule firm, CCI sees little scope for market interventionBut the state-run firm will be fully prepared for MSP operationsAs cotton prices continue to rule high, state-run Cotton Corporation of India Ltd (CCI) sees no scope for market intervention in the new season starting October. CCI, which made a record purchase of cotton at the minimum support price (MSP) during the 2020-21 season, expects its carry forward stocks for the next year to be in the range of 2-3 lakh bales.Ahead of the cotton harvest season starting mid-September, the raw cotton (kapas) prices are currently ruling high at over ₹7,000 per quintal. Also, cottonseed prices are hovering around ₹4,500-5,000 per quintal.“Everything is in a booming mode, and I think the CCI’s intervention may not be required as farmers are already getting 30 per cent more than the MSP rates. Next year, they may be fully satisfied with the market forces,” P K Agarwal, chairman and managing director, the CCI told Business Line.“However, as per our duty, CCI would be fully preparing for the MSP operations,” Agarwal said, adding that the intensity will certainly be lower. “In case our intervention is required, may be in the interior or far-flung places, where the competition is not there, we may have to help the farmers in those areas. In case MSP is not there, we may think of commercial operations,” Agarwal said.Further, Agarwal believes that the current high prices will not sustain for a longer period. “In every commodity, when the peak arrivals are there, the prices are bound to come down. It may come down by ₹500-700 but still be better than MSP,” he added.ProcurementCCI had purchased 92 lakh bales at MSP during the pandemic hit 2020-21 season, when there were no takers in the market, Agarwal said. “Farmers were protected through the MSP operations as they got an assured price,” he said. The opening stocks during October 2020 stood at 60 lakh bales. The Centre has fixed an MSP for medium staple cotton at ₹5,716 per quintal for 2021-22 season higher than the previous year’s ₹5515 per quintal. For the long-staple cotton, the MSP for 2021-22 has been fixed at ₹6025 per quintal over ₹5825.In 2021, CCI disposed of a record 140 lakh bales on good demand from the mills. It also exported about 1 lakh bales during 2020-21. “It was more than a good year. Because of the booming market and price improvement, the MSP losses have also come down substantially to around ₹17,000 crore” Agarwal said.The 2020-21 season started with around ₹40,000 per bale in October, higher than the corresponding previous year’s ₹36,000. “Now, the cotton prices are ruling between ₹53,000-55,000 range on good demand in the market as the mills have started operations, and their requirement has improved,” Agarwal said. Also, most mills have built up inventory and have covered stocks to meet their requirement for the next 2-3 months.InventoriesFurther, Agarwal said that CCI currently has stocks of around 8 lakh bales. “We wish to keep these stocks till September end to avoid any starvation like situation. We are selling about 1,000-2,000 bales daily and by mid-October we may be finishing our stocks,” he added. Agarwal expects CCI’s carry forward stocks for the next season to range between 2-3 lakh bales. The overall carry forward stocks for the country is expected to be 60-70 lakh bales.“The situation is very comfortable because, in the past there had been no occasion when the carry forward stocks were more than 40 lakh bales. This is because of the pandemic situation, India may end up with 60-70 lakh bales, which is almost two-month requirement. The position is not as worse as people are visualising it,” he added. By September end, the new crop will hit the market in North India, he said.

Today evening, the rupee strengthened by 11 paise to close at Rs 74.24 against the dollar.Sensex could not sustain the momentum, closed after breaking 163 pointsToday the stock market closed with a fall. Today, where the Sensex closed at a level of 55629.49, down 162.78 points. On the other hand, Nifty closed at a level of 16568.80 points down by 45.80 points.  

Palm oil falls over 2% on expectations of weak export demandMalaysian palm oil futures slumped as much as 2.8% on Wednesday, hitting a one-week low, amid anticipation of an increase in production and bleak demand outlook.The benchmark palm oil contract for November delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slid 77 ringgit, or 1.75%, to 4,331 ringgit ($1,023.27) a tonne by the midday break, after rallying to a record high last week.The correction in prices was likely induced by expectations demand will fall by about 15% over August 1-20, said Marcello Cultrera, institutional sales manager and broker at Phillip Futures in Kuala Lumpur.Palm falls on August export plunge, profit-taking"Also, the Indian demand for August is fully covered while subscriptions for September-October have reached a standstill at current prices," he added.Export shipments during the first half of August had plunged between 15% and 24% from the previous month, cargo surveyors data showed on Monday.Indonesia, the world's largest palm exporter, had enjoyed greater demand than Malaysia over July and August, partly due to lower export taxes and higher discounts for its crude and refined palm oil.Cultrera said things will change in September as Indonesia is expected to raise its export duties for September to $166 from $93 in August.Top buyer India is also expected to raise their import tax structure for crude and refined palm oil from end-September as subscriptions for the Diwali festival are finalised, Cultrera added.Malaysia kept its September export tax for crude palm oil at 8%, but raised its reference price to 4,255.52 ringgit ($1,006.51) per tonne. The market is also hopeful for a rise in Malaysia's palm oil production amid the seasonal peak production season.The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association earlier this week forecast a 10.6% rise in August 1-15 production, according to traders.Dalian's most-active soyoil contract fell 2%, while its palm oil contract eased 3.8%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade were down 0.5%.Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.  

Palm oil may fall to 4,261 ringgitThe contract failed three times to break a resistance at 4,557 ringgit, around which, a small triple-top has formed and been confirmed.The pattern suggests a target of 4,261 ringgit. It is not very clear if palm oil could drop to a lower level, as the rise from the Aug. 2 low of 4,093 ringgit does not fit well into the wave category of the preceding uptrend from the June 18 low of 3,251 ringgit.Palm oil fallsResistance is at 4466 ringgit, a break above which could lead to a gain into a range of 4557 - 4649 ringgit. On the daily chart, the big black candlestick on Tuesday suggests a further fall on Wednesday.A break above 4,493 ringgit could lead to a gain into 4,587-4,698 ringgit range.Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.  

Rupee opens 5 paise stronger against dollarRupee opened strongly against the dollar in the foreign exchange market today. Today the rupee opened with a strength of 5 paise at Rs 74.30 against the dollar. At the same time, on Tuesday, the rupee strengthened by 10 paise to close at Rs 74.35 against the dollar.Sensex opened sharply, up 212 pointsToday the stock market opened with great momentum. Today the BSE Sensex rose by about 212.39 points to open at the level of 56004.66 points. On the other hand, the Nifty of NSE opened with a gain of 57.90 points at the level of 16672.50 points.  

Oilseeds prices soften due to fall in foreign prices, fall in soybean, palmoleinMost oilseeds, including mustard, soybean and palmolein, closed at a lower price in the Delhi oil-oilseeds market on Tuesday amid a declining trend in foreign markets, while the rest of oilseeds remained at their previous level.Traders said that the Malaysia Exchange and the Chicago Exchange lost around one per cent each. He said that due to the breakdown of foreign markets, the futures price of soybean has also declined. In NCDEX Indore, the price of October contract of soybean has been quoted below the spot price of soybean by Rs 31 per kg.He said that despite domestic festive demand due to fall in foreign countries, the prices of Mustard Dana, Sarson Dadri, Sarson Pakki and Kachchi Ghani, Soyabean Oil Oilseeds, Cottonseed and Palmolein Oils closed softly, while crude palm oil (Crude Palm Oil) due to demand. CPO) and groundnut prices remained unchanged.Sources said that it has become necessary to increase the production of oilseeds in the country as in this case it is not appropriate to depend on imports for almost 70 per cent of our requirements. Due to such massive dependence, the country may have to bear the arbitrariness of foreign companies.  

Palm oil fallsMalaysian palm oil futures reversed early gains on Tuesday as profit-taking and a sharp decline in August exports pulled down prices from record highs scaled last week.The benchmark palm oil contract for November delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 84 ringgit, or 1.9%, at 4,363 ringgit ($1,029.98) a tonne, after rising 1.9% in intraday trade.Prices rose earlier on short-covering due to persistent talks of production losses in both Malaysia and Indonesia, and expectations of lower palm oil carryover stocks for the new season, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oils broker Sunvin Group.Anticipation of Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) export duties for September rising to $166 per tonne from $93 in August also supported prices as it would benefit Malaysia's exports, Bagani said.Malaysia's palm oil exports during Aug. 1-15 fell between 15% and 24% from the same period in July, cargo surveyors said on Monday."Oil World is expecting crude palm oil prices to weaken by end-Dec 2021 and will continue to see more weakness in 1H22 with the assumption of no weather disruptions," UOB KayHian said in a note.Oil World Executive Director Thomas Mielke forecast Indonesia's free-on-board (FOB) CPO prices to fall to $1,000 a tonne by end-December, and range between $800 and $850 during the first half of next year, UOB said.This is due to expectations of stronger global edible oil supplies in 2021/22 after record high prices last year boosted plantings, and demand rationing due to high prices, UOB said.Mielke pegged world palm oil production to rise by 2.1 million tonnes in 2020/21, and by 3.8 million tonnes next season, but low opening stocks will offset production growth, according to UOB.Dalian's most-active soyoil contract gained 0.6%, while its palm oil contract rose 0.5%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 0.6%.Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.  

Soya firm as crop conditions in focusChicago soybeans edged higher on Tuesday as lower-than-expected US crop ratings underscored mixed growing conditions, while the market awaited results from a Midwest field tour.The most-active  the Chicago Board of Trade was CBOT soybeans were up 0.3% at $13.72 a bushel.In a weekly report after Monday's market close, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated 62% of US corn crop good to excellent, down 2 points from a week earlier, and soybeans 57% good to excellent, down 3 points. Traders on average had expected no change.The lower ratings tempered hopes for a boost to crops from rainfall forecast in the coming days."The market is considering downside but not any upside to yields," said Michael Magdovitz, commodity analyst with Rabobank. "The rains have come too little, too late."Initial results from this week's Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour projected lower corn yields and soybean pod counts than last year in South Dakota but higher levels in Ohio, supporting expectations of contrasting yields between western and eastern growing belts.Soybeans have also been supported by a run of sales to China.However, monthly US soybean crushing in July, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday, was below trade estimates."Consumers are having to make pricing decisions at 50%-60% higher than last year. We're starting to see some demand rationing," Magdovitz said.